RMB Is Facing New Challenges.

Less than p ago, the Yuan went to a record high, and the sixth time of the month was refreshed. This year it has risen to 1.75%.. The analysis shows that since the rapid appreciation of the RMB since April has deviated from the domestic economic fundamentals and forward prices, it has appreciated or reached the top during the year, and the possibility of depreciation in the second half of the year.

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< p > < strong > analysis shows that there are two "deviations" < /strong > /p >

< p > some analysts believe that there are two deviations from the appreciation of the renminbi this year.

On the one hand, China's basic economic side does not support such a rapid appreciation.

In the first quarter of this year, China's GDP growth rate dropped to 7.7% from 7.9% in the fourth quarter of last year, while the GDP growth rate in the United States increased from 0.4% in the fourth quarter of last year to 2.5%. growth in the first quarter of this year.

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< p > on the other hand, compared with the appreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar, the forward exchange rate has always been in a premium, which means that the future of the market is to depreciate the renminbi.

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Less than p days ago, the RMB sold against the US dollar for 6 months, and the discount rate was 640 basis points, while the one-year selling price discount point was extended to 1120 basis points, which means that the market thinks that the price of RMB will be 6.2332 against the US dollar or depreciate 1.8%. < /p > in the next year.

< p > < strong > the traditional export industry is facing a crisis < /strong > < /p >

The rapid appreciation of RMB P has the biggest negative impact on traditional industries.

Li Youhuan, director of the comprehensive development research center of Guangdong Provincial Social Sciences, said that the recent trend of RMB exchange rate can not be followed. The main reason is that export trade, especially traditional export trade, is already unbearable.

However, the tolerance of different types of enterprises to RMB appreciation is not the same.

Li Youhuan pointed out that, as in some high-tech industries, even if the renminbi rose to 5.8 against the US dollar, it would not be a big problem as long as it could appreciate slowly. But if it is < a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > shoes < /a > a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > clothing, hardware, furniture and other traditional industries, the exchange rate will reach 6, which should almost retire.

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