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Central Bank: Inflation Pressure Is Still High &Nbsp; Grasp The Rhythm Of Policy Efforts.

2011/7/6 10:49:00 42

Central Bank Inflation Pressure Grasp

China

People's Bank of China

The monetary policy committee was held in Beijing in the second quarter of 2011. In terms of the economic and financial situation and policy trend, the meeting had some changes compared with regular meetings in the first quarter.


On the question of price, the meeting stressed that "inflation pressure is still high", replacing the first quarter's "macroeconomic regulation and control task of stabilizing the general price level".

In the two quarter regular meeting, the central bank emphasized the rhythm and intensity of the policy, and put forward for the first time the stability of the policy.


The meeting held that China's economic and financial operation is developing in the direction of macro-control. However, the situation facing economic and financial development is still complex, and the world economy continues to recover slowly, but the risk factors still remain. China's economy continues to develop steadily and rapidly, but the inflationary pressure is still at a high level.


The meeting stressed that we should pay close attention to the latest trends and impacts of international and domestic economic and financial affairs, implement the prudent monetary policy, pay attention to the stability, pertinence and flexibility of policies, and grasp the rhythm and intensity of policies.

We should make a comprehensive use of various monetary policy tools, improve the framework of macro Prudential policy, effectively manage liquidity, and maintain a reasonable scale of social financing and the total amount of money.


The central bank has put forward efforts to optimize the credit structure and guide commercial banks to increase credit support for key areas and weak links, especially for the "three rural" and small and medium-sized enterprises.

We should continue to play the role of direct financing to better meet diversified investment and financing needs.

Further improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and maintain

RMB rate

Basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.


For the change in the wording of the central bank's regular meetings, Fu Bingtao, a researcher at the strategic planning department of the Agricultural Bank of China, believes that

manufacturing industry

The purchasing managers' index (PMI) continued to fall, and the central bank's current worries about the economic downturn were more obvious than in the first quarter.

The change of wording means that monetary policy may enter the wait-and-see period. The central bank will pay close attention to the macro operational data in June and July. If the subsequent inflation is effectively controlled, tightening efforts may be relaxed.


Lu Zheng commissar, a senior economist at Xingye Bank, pointed out that the central bank clearly put forward that "inflation pressure is still at a high level", and stressed that monetary policy should grasp "stability", which is a response to the current policy need to relax, that is, policy can not be relaxed.

According to his analysis, the next stage of monetary policy may shift from "active tightening" to "maintaining neutrality", but "maintaining neutrality" does not mean "wait-and-see", but continues to recover liquidity when necessary. If inflation continues to rise, the real interest rate level should remain stable.

It is expected that there will be a rate increase in July, but there will be no further increase in the deposit reserve ratio.

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