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The Export Price Of Diammonium Increases The Price; The Effect Of Spandex Power Restriction Is Obvious.

2010/7/27 16:59:00 55

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Spandex

Products with larger weekly average price increase: TDI (4.78%), sulphur (3.84%), NYMEX natural gas (3.32%).

Weekly average price decline products: ethylene Korea FOB (-4.12%), adipic acid (-3.16%), viscose staple (-2.76%).

Hurricanes are driving up oil prices.

July 23rd us

Futures trade

Crude oil futures closed at a price of 78.98 US dollars / barrel, or a weekly gain of 3.91%. This week's crude oil futures price is affected by Hurricane expectations. According to the US National Hurricane Center report, it is estimated that third tropical lows in the Atlantic will enter the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, and the market expects that the hurricane will affect the short-term crude oil supply in the North America region.

And we expect crude oil prices to remain between us $75-80 in the short term. Unless there is a substantial supply shock, it will be less likely to break through US $80 / barrel.

The export continued well, and the price of diammonium was out of stock. Because of the good export form this year, some of the export orders for diammonium have been discharged into the fourth quarter. Up to now, the total export volume of domestic phosphate fertilizer enterprises is about 1 million tons.

At present, the factory price of 64% diammonium is 2650-2800 yuan / ton, the 57% factory price of diammonium is 2150-2200 yuan / ton, the local market of domestic diammonium is out of stock, and some factories begin to increase slightly.

It is expected that some manufacturers will keep up with the later stage, and will stabilize prices after entering the autumn.

spandex

The effect of power restriction and stop production is obvious, and the price is expected to be strengthened.

This week 40D spandex price stability, and power restriction, the actual situation has gradually confirmed our previous judgement. At present, Zhejiang has a total of 16 thousand tons of capacity production device has been laid down production plan, and another Zhejiang Xue Yongxing 6000 tons of capacity delay production time.

Expected spandex short-term consolidation, price increases expected to increase gradually with the increase in production.

Hubei Yihua: Based on resources, expanding to the West.

Recently, we investigated Hubei Yihua.

The company sees a lot in the future: 1) build on resources.

Scale

Advantage, at the same time, marching toward low cost area to expand the company's growth, and 2) the acquisition of minority shareholders' thickening company's performance is 0.37 yuan; 3) the elasticity of performance is high, which is the best investment target for urea.

Without considering the impact of the issuance and acquisition of minority shareholders, the company expects 2010-2012 years of EPS to be 0.93 yuan, 1.24 yuan and 1.58 yuan, corresponding dynamic PE is 17 times, 13 times and 10 times.

If the progress is going well, the acquisition of minority shareholders is expected to be completed by the end of August. The company's EPS in 2010 was 1.04 yuan, and we maintained the company's "overweight" investment rating.